Grim times lie ahead for China’s sneaker and athletic-clothing brands about to face the hangover of easy credit and all-too-rapid expansion, according to analysts.

　　Reuter2009年，在一次新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，俄羅斯奧運(yùn)冠軍伊辛巴耶娃(Yelena Isinbayeva)站在中國(guó)體育運(yùn)動(dòng)品牌李寧的LOGO前。

　　分析師們說(shuō)，為應(yīng)對(duì)大舉借債和實(shí)在太過(guò)迅速的擴(kuò)張導(dǎo)致的后遺癥，中國(guó)的運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋和運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商未來(lái)將面臨一段嚴(yán)峻的日子。

　　Once poised to benefit from China’s hosting of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, analysts now view the brands as caught by steroid-like overgrowth of their retailing and wholesale businesses.

　　分析師們認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的這些生產(chǎn)商曾打算借2008年北京奧運(yùn)會(huì)的東風(fēng)賺上一筆，現(xiàn)在卻因自己的零售和批發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)在人工催長(zhǎng)下過(guò)度增長(zhǎng)而陷入困境。

　　“The overcrowding of stores is beginning to cause cannibalization of sales and [a] price war,” said UOB KayHian analyst Ken Lee in a note released last week.

　　大華繼顯（UOB KayHian）的分析師Ken Lee在一份上周發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告中說(shuō)，門(mén)店數(shù)量過(guò)多正開(kāi)始導(dǎo)致你死我活的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。

　　The problem, Lee said, can be traced back to the initial-public-offering boom in Hong Kong during recent years, when mainland Chinese consumer-related themes were able to raise funds easily to fuel ambitious growth plans.

　　他說(shuō)，這一問(wèn)題可以追溯到最近幾年在香港出現(xiàn)的首次公開(kāi)募股熱，借著這股熱潮，中國(guó)內(nèi)地的消費(fèi)相關(guān)企業(yè)得以容易地籌到資金以推動(dòng)其雄心勃勃的增長(zhǎng)計(jì)劃。

　　For example, Peak Sport Products Co. ─ which signed U.S. basketball star Jason Kidd and other top athletes to represent its line of apparel ─ was able to raise $224 million in a September 2009 listing, pledging to use the funds for product development and to expand its retail sales network in China.

　　以匹克體育用品有限公司（Peak Sport Products Co.）為例，它2009年9月通過(guò)上市募集資金2.24億美元，并承諾將這筆資金用于產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)和擴(kuò)大在中國(guó)的零售網(wǎng)絡(luò)。匹克體育簽下了美國(guó)籃球明星基德（Jason Kidd）和其他一些運(yùn)動(dòng)員來(lái)做自己運(yùn)動(dòng)服的代言人。

　　Likewise, apparel group 361 Degrees International was able to raise $231 million as part of its offer, which debuted in June 2009. Promoters said the company would benefit from sportswear spending, expected to rise at a 30% annualized rate for years.

　　此外，服裝企業(yè)361度國(guó)際有限公司（361 Degrees International）也通過(guò)首次公開(kāi)募股籌集資金2.31億美元，該公司股票于2009年6月上市交易。當(dāng)時(shí)給這家公司做宣傳的人說(shuō)，361度國(guó)際將從消費(fèi)者增加在運(yùn)動(dòng)服裝方面的支出中獲益，預(yù)計(jì)該公司將多年保持30%的年增長(zhǎng)率。

　　But what followed, says Lee, was a retailing arms race that outpaced consumer spending power.

　　Ken Lee說(shuō)，接下來(lái)出現(xiàn)的卻是各運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商的零售競(jìng)賽，這一競(jìng)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)超出了消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)能力。

　　Five of the major Chinese sportswear brands listed in Hong Kong each have retail networks of more than 7,000 mainland Chinese outlets, according to UOB KayHian, citing data at the end of 2010. A sixth brand listed in Hong Kong, focused more on wealthier coastal cities, operates 3,750 outlets.

　　大華繼顯截至2010年底的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在香港上市的中國(guó)五大運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商，每家在中國(guó)內(nèi)地都有7,000家以上的零售店。第六家在香港上市的中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商把業(yè)務(wù)重點(diǎn)放在那些更富裕的沿海城市，它有3,750家零售店。

　　A recent visit to some of these stores revealed product markdowns of 50% to 90%, or even two-for-one promotions on summer wear.

　　大華繼顯最近考察這些運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商的一些零售店后發(fā)現(xiàn)，它們的產(chǎn)品常常降價(jià)50%至90%銷(xiāo)售，夏裝甚至在搞買(mǎi)二贈(zèng)一促銷(xiāo)。

　　“We have never seen such deep and prevalent discounting,” said Lee, whose retail survey in June took him to six cities around the Chinese mainland.

　　Ken Lee今年6月曾到中國(guó)內(nèi)地六座城市考察零售業(yè)，他說(shuō)，我們從未見(jiàn)到過(guò)如此大范圍、高幅度的打折。

　　In a note earlier this month, Credit Suisse analysts said they expect some of the brands to merge as they struggle for survival amid what could be a crisis during the current half-year period.

　　瑞信（Credit Suisse）分析師在本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)表的一份研究報(bào)告中說(shuō)，他們預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)一些運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商將出于生存需要而進(jìn)行整合，因?yàn)檫@一行業(yè)今年下半年可能爆發(fā)一場(chǎng)危機(jī)。

　　International brands appear, so far, to be avoiding the fallout. Nike Inc.’s Greater China sales were up 16% in the second quarter from a year earlier. But two recent profit warnings are amounting to a reality check for the Chinese labels.

　　到目前為止，那些生產(chǎn)運(yùn)動(dòng)服的跨國(guó)公司似乎并未遭受因過(guò)度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致的困境。耐克公司（Nike Inc.）今年第二季度的大中華地區(qū)銷(xiāo)售額比上年同期增長(zhǎng)了16%。但對(duì)中國(guó)的運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，兩家公司最近發(fā)出的利潤(rùn)預(yù)警卻是它們眼下困境的現(xiàn)實(shí)寫(xiě)照。

　　Li Ning Co. on July 7 warned of weaker first-half results, while a day later China Dongxiang Group, makers of popular Chinese brand Kappa, cautioned its first-half profit would be lower than year-earlier levels.

　　李寧有限公司（Li Ning Co.）在7月7日發(fā)布預(yù)警說(shuō)，公司上半年業(yè)績(jī)將較為疲弱，一天之后，中國(guó)知名運(yùn)動(dòng)裝品牌卡帕(Kappa)的生產(chǎn)商中國(guó)動(dòng)向集團(tuán)有限公司（China Dongxiang Group）發(fā)布預(yù)警說(shuō)，它今年上半年利潤(rùn)將低于去年同期。

　　“We see this as a turning point ... [showing] investors’ loss of faith in Chinese sportswear stocks,” said Lee, citing a sharp sell-off in share prices across the sector following the profit warnings.

　　Ken Lee說(shuō)，我們將此視為一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)......這顯示投資者喪失了對(duì)中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商類(lèi)股的信心。他說(shuō)，自己的理由是在上述利潤(rùn)預(yù)警發(fā)布后，中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)服生產(chǎn)商的股票全都遭遇大幅拋售。

　　Li Ning’s board warned that higher raw-material prices were a factor for its upcoming soft numbers, which would see first-half profit fall by as much as 56% from a year earlier.

　　李寧公司董事會(huì)告誡說(shuō)，原材料價(jià)格走高是導(dǎo)致其即將發(fā)布的盈利數(shù)據(jù)疲軟的一個(gè)因素。其上半年利潤(rùn)同比最多可能下跌56%。

　　Meanwhile, China Dongxiang said its first-half profit could slump by up to 75% from a year earlier because of weaker sales and a 220 million yuan ($34.1 million) provision to buy back excess inventory from distributors that supply independent retail shops.

　　與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)動(dòng)向表示，由于銷(xiāo)量下滑以及計(jì)提2.2億元（約合3,410萬(wàn)美元）準(zhǔn)備金用以向分銷(xiāo)商回購(gòu)積壓庫(kù)存，其上半年利潤(rùn)同比可能最多下滑75%。上述分銷(xiāo)商負(fù)責(zé)給獨(dú)立零售店供貨。

　　Ahead of the profit warnings, Lee downgraded the sportswear sector to underweight, from his previous market-weight view. He was particularly wary of Li Ning’s retail strategy, which includes plans for 10,000 retail outlets within three years, up from around 8,000 currently.

　　在公司發(fā)布盈利預(yù)警之前，Ken Lee將運(yùn)動(dòng)服行業(yè)的評(píng)級(jí)從此前的與市場(chǎng)大盤(pán)一致下調(diào)為“減持”。他特別警惕李寧的零售戰(zhàn)略。這一戰(zhàn)略包括三年內(nèi)將零售店面從目前的大約8,000個(gè)增加至1萬(wàn)個(gè)。

　　In some cases, the retailer was opening additional outlets on city blocks where it already operated as many as four locations.

　　在某些情況下，零售商打算在一些已經(jīng)開(kāi)設(shè)了四家店的街區(qū)開(kāi)設(shè)新的店面。

　　“Adding more stores doesn’t help,” Lee said, adding that Li Ning’s management is believed to be rethinking the expansion.

　　Ken Lee說(shuō)開(kāi)更多的店無(wú)助于事，并說(shuō)李寧管理層應(yīng)該重新考慮擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略。

　　New factory outlets had driven up Li Ning’s operating expenses but did little to boost overall sales, Citigroup said in a note on the company.

　　花旗集團(tuán)在一份有關(guān)李寧公司的研究報(bào)告中說(shuō)，新開(kāi)設(shè)的工廠直銷(xiāo)店推高了李寧公司的營(yíng)業(yè)費(fèi)用，但對(duì)提高整體銷(xiāo)售額卻幾乎沒(méi)有幫助。

　　Citi said Li Ning may have pressed on with the factory-outlet expansion as a way getting rid of unwanted inventory.

　　花旗集團(tuán)說(shuō)，李寧公司堅(jiān)定推進(jìn)工廠直銷(xiāo)店的擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略，可能是想借此處理積壓庫(kù)存。

　　Still, UOB’s Lee believes much of the decline is now irreversible, forecasting Li Ning to swing to a loss beginning in the first half of next year. A key indicator to watch will be sales figures due out in August and another set in the autumn that point to wholesale demand for 2012.

　　盡管如此，大華繼顯的Ken Lee認(rèn)為銷(xiāo)量下滑的趨勢(shì)基本不可逆轉(zhuǎn)，他預(yù)測(cè)說(shuō)李寧公司明年上半年會(huì)開(kāi)始虧損。一個(gè)必須留意的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)是將于8月份出爐的銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)，以及今年秋季發(fā)布的有關(guān)2012年批發(fā)需求的數(shù)據(jù)。

　　What’s coming back to haunt retailers are credit lines and longer payback periods which they extended to wholesalers buyers. Profit margins were a casualty, as vendors cut prices to get ride of excess merchandise.

　　再次困擾零售商的問(wèn)題包括信用額度以及零售商延長(zhǎng)了批發(fā)客戶(hù)的回款周期。為了處理積壓商品，銷(xiāo)售商紛紛降價(jià)，利潤(rùn)率因此大幅下滑。

　　Morgan Stanley last week cited the need for additional buy-backs of ageing inventory by Li Ning and China Dongxiang’s Kappa as reasons for its bearish views of the sector.

　　上周，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）以李寧公司和中國(guó)動(dòng)向還要繼續(xù)回購(gòu)過(guò)季存貨為由看跌運(yùn)動(dòng)服行業(yè)的后市。

　　A turnaround by Nike and Adidas AG, which overcame inventory problems in China during a painful two-year workout in late 2008, offered a template for recovery. But Lee said the scale of the problems facing the domestic Chinese brands was bigger.

　　耐克和阿迪達(dá)斯公司（Adidas AG）的扭虧為盈提供了一個(gè)復(fù)蘇的模式。但Ken Lee說(shuō)中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)品牌面臨的問(wèn)題規(guī)模更大。從2008年末開(kāi)始，耐克和阿迪達(dá)斯公司在中國(guó)經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)痛苦的兩年周期，兩家公司在此期間克服了庫(kù)存問(wèn)題。

　　“Now, even after the plunge in stock prices, we remain pessimistic on the sector,” he said.

　　Ken Lee說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在即使在股價(jià)暴跌之后，我們?nèi)匀粚?duì)該行業(yè)持悲觀態(tài)度。

　　Still, some Chinese brands offered more optimistic outlooks. Hong Kong-listed Xtep International Holdings Ltd., an apparel group partly owned by the Carlyle Group, said it plans to add 500 retail outlets this year, mainly in smaller urban centers. The move, it said, was designed to tap sportswear sales growth in China of 15% to 18% this year.

　　盡管如此，一些中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)品牌仍然對(duì)前景持有樂(lè)觀的預(yù)期。在香港上市的特步國(guó)際控股有限公司（Xtep International Holdings Ltd.，簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)：特步國(guó)際）表示今年計(jì)劃新增500個(gè)零售店面，地址主要在二三線城市的中心。這家服裝集團(tuán)由凱雷集團(tuán)（Carlyle Group）部分所有。特步國(guó)際說(shuō)此舉意在利用中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)15%至18%的的運(yùn)動(dòng)服銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)率。