Many people in China and abroad view the country’s official inflation statistics with deep suspicion, arguing that real price rises are much greater than indicated by the government’s published consumer price index.

　　中國國內(nèi)及國外的許多人對其官方通脹統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)深感懷疑，辯稱中國的實際價格漲幅，遠遠大于政府發(fā)布的消費價格指數(shù)(CPI)。

　　But a comparison with The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Index provides proof that official Chinese inflation is actually pretty accurate, according to UBS economist Jonathan Anderson.

　　然而，瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟學家喬納森·安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示，若與英國《經(jīng)濟學人》雜志(The Economist)知名的巨無霸漢堡包指數(shù)(Big Mac Index)進行比較，就會證明中國官方的通脹數(shù)據(jù)其實相當準確。

　　The Index shows that the average price of a McDonald’s Big Mac hamburger in early 2003 in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was Rmb10.20 and that by the end of 2010 the price had increased to Rmb14.50.

　　巨無霸指數(shù)顯示，2003年初，一個麥當勞(McDonald’s)巨無霸漢堡包在北京、上海和深圳的平均價格為10.20元人民幣，而到了2010年底，這一價格已升至14.50元人民幣。

　　This annual inflation rate of 4.4 per cent over eight years compares with the officially reported rate of 3.1 percent.

　　在這8年期間的年度通脹率為4.4%，而官方報告的通脹率為3.1%。

　　But that is roughly the same difference between official inflation rates and respective Big Mac Indices in the US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, Poland, Mexico and Hungary – “none economies that tend to raise investor suspicions of pervasive statistical inflation misreporting,” according to Anderson.

　　但在美國、日本、歐洲、新加坡、波蘭、墨西哥和匈牙利，當?shù)鼐逕o霸指數(shù)與官方通脹率也存在相似的差異。安德森表示：“這些經(jīng)濟體都沒有引發(fā)投資者懷疑，認為當?shù)卮嬖谄毡榈耐浗y(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)誤報。”

　　He points out that hamburger prices all over the world tend to rise faster than overall CPI because food prices have risen faster in most places.

　　他指出，世界各地的漢堡包價格上漲速度，往往快于整體消費價格指數(shù)，因為在多數(shù)地方，食品價格上漲得更快。

　　“In other words, according to the Big Mac index China official price statistics are, well, just as accurate as anyone else’s,” Anderson said.

　　 “換言之，根據(jù)巨無霸漢堡包指數(shù)，中國官方的價格統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)與其它經(jīng)濟體同樣準確，”安德森表示。

　　He also has an interesting explanation for the perception amongst Chinese citizens and the wider investment community that the government is lying about real price increases for political reasons.

　　一些中國公民乃至范圍更大的投資界抱有一種看法，認為中國政府出于政治原因，在實際價格漲幅上沒講實話，對此，安德森也有一個耐人尋味的解釋。

　　He says that when pressed for details of rising prices, many people in China actually reveal that they are upgrading their consumption patterns – moving from sidewalk dumpling stalls to branded restaurant chains, buying Nike trainers instead of fake leather loafers.

　　他表示，許多中國人在被追問到漲價細節(jié)時，都會透露出他們實際上在提升自己的消費模式——從路邊的餃子攤到品牌連鎖餐廳，從購買假皮革便鞋到購買耐克(Nike)運動鞋。

　　“What these examples have in common, of course, is that they all represent increases in the standard of living; cash outlays may be rising rapidly as a result, but according to international standards, this is not inflation,” Anderson says.

　　 “這些例子的共同點當然是，它們都代表著生活水平的提高；現(xiàn)金支出也許因此快速增加，但按照國際標準，這不算通脹，”安德森表示。

　　Finally, for an example of a country where inflation is very much underestimated by official figures Anderson compares Argentina’s data with the Big Mac Index in that country.

　　 最后，安德森以阿根廷為例，說明官方數(shù)據(jù)如何才算大幅低估通脹。他比較了阿根廷通脹數(shù)據(jù)與該國巨無霸指數(shù)。

　　Annual burger inflation in Argentina of nearly 18 per cent over the last eight years compares with an official annual rate of 8-9 per cent.

　　 過去8年間，阿根廷巨無霸漢堡包的年度通脹率達到近18%，而官方年度通脹率為8%-9%。

　　“Given this picture, it should come as no surprise that Argentina is the one economy under our coverage where we have long maintained that inflation is officially understated,” Anderson says.

　　 “有鑒于此，人們不應感到意外的是，在我們研究覆蓋的國家中，阿根廷是我們長期認為官方通脹低報的一個經(jīng)濟體，”安德森表示。