China's economic growth slowed slightly in the first quarter, but inflation accelerated to a nearly three-year high in March. The country's gross domestic product rose 9.7% from a year earlier in the first quarter, data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics show, down marginally from the 9.8% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 5.4% from a year earlier in March, up from 4.9% in February and the fastest since July 2008. Economists react:

　　中國一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長略有放慢，但3月份通貨膨脹加劇，達(dá)到接近三年以來最高。國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，一季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)較上年同期增長9.7%，略低于2010年第四季度9.8%的增長率。與此同時(shí)，3月份居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格總水平(CPI)較上年同期上漲5.4%，高于2月份的4.9%，并且是2008年7月份以來的最大上漲幅度。以下是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的點(diǎn)評(píng)：

　　The Chinese economy is not slowing as planned, or desired, with GDP expanding 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter to 9.63 trillion yuan. The strong economic performance through Q1, despite the myriad tightening measures put in place over the past six months, should give policymakers confidence to more aggressively attack inflation and its root causes. Indeed, with CPI jumping to a 32-month high, it is not hard to argue for further tightening. --Alistair Thornton and Xianfang Ren,

　　IHS Global Insight AFP/Getty新疆哈密市一個(gè)啤酒廠里的工人。一季度GDP同比增長9.7%至9.63萬億元，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒有按照計(jì)劃或者說愿望放緩。盡管過去六個(gè)月推出了大量緊縮措施，一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)依然強(qiáng)勁，這應(yīng)該會(huì)讓決策者有信心以更大力度抗通脹、鏟除通脹根源。事實(shí)上，在CPI增幅升至32個(gè)月最高的情況下，進(jìn)一步收緊的結(jié)論不難得出。──Alistair Thornton、Xianfang Ren，IHS Global Insight

　　Both 1Q11 GDP growth and March CPI inflation were above street consensus... Our overall assessment is that economic growth is stable and robust, but inflation pressure is elevated (though definitely not out of control). The next peak of inflation will likely be in June at 5.5%-6%. The government raised tone on inflation-fighting, but also issued warning on over-tightening. Regarding market impact, most major data were leaked in the past two days, so informed investors should expect no shocks. Overall, we think investors should remain cautious as the Chinese government itself sees many uncertaintiesâ  CPI dropped 0.2% MoM in March due to seasonality. Usually it should drop more in the post-(Lunar New Year) holiday time from February to March, and that's why policymakers are a bit nervous about inflation pressures and they raised tone on inflation fighting this week. --Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch .

　　2011年一季度GDP增速和3月份CPI漲幅都高于預(yù)期。……我們的總體判斷是，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是穩(wěn)定、強(qiáng)勁的，但通脹壓力已經(jīng)升高（不過肯定沒有失控）。下一個(gè)通脹高峰可能會(huì)是在6月份，通脹率在5.5%到6%之間。政府抬高了抗通脹的聲調(diào)，但也警告不要過度緊縮。在市場(chǎng)影響方面，多數(shù)重要數(shù)據(jù)都已經(jīng)在過去兩天泄露，所以有了解的投資者就別指望有什么沖擊?？傮w來講，我們認(rèn)為投資者應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎行事，因?yàn)橹袊约阂舱J(rèn)為存在很多不確定性。受季節(jié)性因素影響，3月份CPI環(huán)比下降0.2%。一般情況下，因?yàn)檫^了春節(jié)，3月份CPI較2月份應(yīng)該下降更多，正是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因，決策者對(duì)通脹壓力顯得有些擔(dān)心，并在本周調(diào)高了抗通脹的聲調(diào)。──陸挺，美銀美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)

　　Not much of a surprise in the data, though the activity numbers are perhaps a little stronger than expected, with little evidence to date that rate hikes, a stronger currency, and higher oil prices are having much of an impact on growth. Inflation of course, is the main issue in the short termâ 'we think price pressures will ease in the second half of the year, but there is still more upside in the next few months, and the risk is that high oil prices will keep headline inflation stronger for longer. This also suggests that policy rates still need to move higher in the months ahead, with Beijing also likely to favor further currency appreciation to help get inflation lower. --Brian Jackson, Royal Bank of Canada.

　　數(shù)據(jù)沒有什么出人意料的內(nèi)容，不過反映經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的數(shù)據(jù)可能比預(yù)期略顯強(qiáng)勁，而迄今少有證據(jù)表明利率上調(diào)、人民幣升值和油價(jià)升高對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生了多大影響。通貨膨脹自然是短期內(nèi)的主要議題。我們認(rèn)為物價(jià)壓力將在下半年緩和，但接下來幾個(gè)月的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大，而且總體通貨膨脹率有可能因?yàn)楦哂蛢r(jià)而上升更長時(shí)間。這也說明未來幾個(gè)月仍需上調(diào)政策利率，而北京也有可能傾向于讓人民幣進(jìn)一步升值，從一個(gè)方面減弱通貨膨脹。──Brian Jackson，加拿大皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Canada)

　　China's inflation has been running at a high level for more than a year due to the post-financial crisis expansion of money supply, the rise in agricultural prices, the gradual feed-through of wage growth, and the impact of rising global commodity prices. Chinese policy makers are using a multi-pronged approach to curb inflation, including monetary tightening, administrative measures and accelerated currency appreciationâ The exchange rate has played only a secondary role in China's policy arsenal. However, last week, Premier Wen indicated that China will use all possible measures, including the yuan exchange rate, to keep prices under control. This constituted the first time the premier had publicly referenced the yuan's exchange rate as a mechanism to counter inflation --Polly Leung, J.P. Morgan.

　　中國的高通脹已經(jīng)維持了一年多，原因有金融危機(jī)過后貨幣供應(yīng)擴(kuò)張、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲、工資增長逐漸傳導(dǎo)，以及國際大宗商品價(jià)格上漲的影響。中國政策制定者正在多管齊下地遏制通貨膨脹，包括貨幣緊縮、行政手段和人民幣更快升值。在中國的各種政策工具中，匯率只起到了輔助性作用。但國務(wù)院總理溫家寶上周暗示，中國將使用包括人民幣匯率在內(nèi)的一切可用措施來控制物價(jià)。這是溫家寶第一次公開地把人民幣匯率當(dāng)作一個(gè)抗通脹機(jī)制來說。──Polly Leung，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)

　　There was clearly a rebound in domestic demand growth in March, which was driven by the loosening of monetary and fiscal policies as reflected in stronger M2 growth. Such a rebound tends to increase inflationary pressures amid the continued strength in external demand growth and requires further tightening measures. Having said that, despite the loosening in March, the overall policy stance in 1Q2011 was still tighter than it was in 4Q2010 which led to the moderation in sequential activity growth and inflation in 1Q2011 from 4Q2010. --Yu Song and Helen Qiao, Goldman Sachs

　　3月份國內(nèi)需求增長明顯存在反彈，這是貨幣和財(cái)政政策放松帶動(dòng)的，從更加強(qiáng)勁的M2增長就可以看到。在外部需求持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長的情況下，這樣一種反彈往往會(huì)增加通脹壓力，需要采取更多緊縮措施。另外，雖然3月份有所放松，但2011年一季度的整體政策姿態(tài)仍然比2010年第四季度更緊，這導(dǎo)致2011年一季度的后續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹增幅較2010年第四季度都有緩和。──宋宇、喬虹，高盛(Goldman Sachs)