There is no bigger question hanging over global markets than the resilience of China's economic growth. Yet the tea leaves are especially difficult to read right now.

　　對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，一個(gè)最大的問(wèn)題是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的復(fù)原力。然而，眼下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)卻尤其讓人一頭霧水。

　　On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics will release gross-domestic-product growth figures for the first quarter of 2011. Markets already take the government's official data with a grain of salt. The timing of China's New Year, which often messes with first-quarter figures, could cast even more doubt on the usefulness of this particular release.

　　 Bloomberg News二月份，在中國(guó)山東省濟(jì)寧市，一名工人在倍耐力輪胎廠整理橡膠帶。本周五，中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局將公布2011年一季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速數(shù)據(jù)。市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)對(duì)政府官方數(shù)據(jù)普遍表示懷疑。常常會(huì)影響一季度數(shù)據(jù)的春節(jié)則讓人更加質(zhì)疑即將發(fā)布的一季度數(shù)據(jù)是否準(zhǔn)確。

　　Economists expect the figures to show GDP expanding 9.5% from a year earlier, in line with the prior two quarters though a slowing from the nearly 12% growth rate of early 2010. Still, that relatively strong pace should arrest some fears of a "hard landing" in China as the nation ratchets up its inflation-fighting efforts. The central bank just raised benchmark interest rates for the fourth time in as many months.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì)，數(shù)據(jù)將顯示GDP同比增長(zhǎng)9.5%，與此前兩個(gè)季度增速相仿，不過(guò)較2010年年初12%的增速有所放緩。盡管如此，在中國(guó)加大遏制通脹的力度之際，這一相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁的增速應(yīng)該能從一定程度上消除人們對(duì)中國(guó)發(fā)生硬著陸的擔(dān)心。中國(guó)央行此前剛剛上調(diào)了基準(zhǔn)利率，是數(shù)月來(lái)的第四次加息。

　　The data won't extinguish slowdown worries entirely, however. Indeed, separate reports show consumer confidence is at its weakest in a decade. The nation just recorded its first quarterly trade deficit in seven years, but that has as much to do with the higher cost of commodity prices as with stronger demand.

　　不過(guò)，數(shù)據(jù)不會(huì)徹底消除對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的擔(dān)憂。實(shí)際上，其他報(bào)告顯示，消費(fèi)者信心處于10年來(lái)的最低水平。中國(guó)剛剛公布七年來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)的季度貿(mào)易逆差，不過(guò)這是大宗商品價(jià)格上漲和需求增強(qiáng)雙重作用的結(jié)果。

　　Meanwhile, other economic reports have been mixed. Industrial-production growth has accelerated, but the government changed those figures this year to exclude smaller firms. Concrete production and freight transported by rail have separately edged down. HSBC's manufacturing index dropped in February and stayed low in March.

　　 與此同時(shí)，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)告喜憂參半。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增速加快，不過(guò)政府今年調(diào)整了統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，沒(méi)有將較小的企業(yè)包括在內(nèi)。混凝土產(chǎn)量和鐵路貨運(yùn)量均有所下滑。2月份匯豐(HSBC)制造業(yè)指數(shù)下降，3月份依然處于低位。

　　For that reason, the highlight of Friday's release may be the appearance for the first time of an official number for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Presenting the quarterly change in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate is already the basis for official figures in most other countries, including the U.S. It also better captures changes in the economy's momentum, which markets are desperate to gauge.

　　 因此，周五數(shù)據(jù)公布的亮點(diǎn)可能是首次出現(xiàn)官方季度環(huán)比數(shù)據(jù)。將GDP的季度變化以經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整的年率化形式表達(dá)出來(lái)，這已經(jīng)是包括美國(guó)在內(nèi)的大部分其他國(guó)家的官方數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)了。這還可以更好地體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭的變化，而經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭的變化是市場(chǎng)急于把握的。

　　Yet the consumer-price index separately out Friday could yet be the headline-grabber. It is expected to push above 5% year-on-year growth in March from 4.9% in February. The higher it goes, the more aggressive the government will likely have to be with interest rates. And that would cast an even bigger question mark over the sustainability of China's impressive growth.

　　然而，周五還將出爐的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)有可能成為關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)3月份CPI同比漲幅將超過(guò)5%，而2月份為4.9%。CPI越高，政府加息的力度可能就必須越大。這將給中國(guó)快速增長(zhǎng)的持續(xù)能力打上一個(gè)更大的問(wèn)號(hào)。