Since a devastating earthquake and ensuing tsunami struck Japan last Friday, investors have been dumping Japanese and U.S. stocks in what can only be called panic selling. Getty Images

　　2011年3月11日，日本遭受地震災(zāi)難以及隨之而來的海嘯沖擊，此后投資者紛紛賣出日本和美國(guó)股票，簡(jiǎn)直就是一種恐慌拋售。

　　In my view, this is a big mistake. I'm sticking with my disciplined buy-sell strategy, looking to snap up shares of U.S. stocks--and even Japanese stocks--if conditions merit.

　　在我看來，這是一個(gè)大錯(cuò)誤。我依然堅(jiān)持自己的股票買賣原則，并在條件允許的情況下，考慮進(jìn)一步買入美國(guó)股票——甚至日本股票。

　　Many years ago I bought a one-bedroom condominium in New York as an investment and rented it out. My tenant for several years was a sushi chef from Japan. The rent check arrived each month a week early. He spoke little English, but every December he sent me a Christmas card, carefully hand-written, thanking me for the privilege of being my tenant. I can't say whether he's typical of his fellow countrymen, but he left me with an indelibly positive impression of the Japanese.

　　很多年前，我在紐約買了一間一居室的共管公寓作為投資，并把它租了出去。有好幾年，我的房客是一名日本來的壽司廚師。每個(gè)月的租金支票都提前一周寄來。他只會(huì)一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)英語，但每年的12月都會(huì)給我寄一張圣誕卡片，字寫得很工整，感謝我給予他租房子的機(jī)會(huì)。我不知道他是否屬于典型的日本人，但他讓我對(duì)日本人留下了不可磨滅的良好印象。

　　I have been thinking of him this week as Japan teeters on the brink of nuclear catastrophe, still reeling from the earthquake disaster that so far has taken the lives of more than 5,000 people and left thousands more still missing. These calamities follow a decade of economic stagnation and declining morale as China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy.

　　如今，日本瀕臨核災(zāi)難的邊緣，并仍沉浸在地震的余威當(dāng)中；這場(chǎng)地震目前已經(jīng)奪走了8000多人的生命，另有數(shù)千人下落不明。在這段時(shí)間里，我時(shí)常想起那個(gè)日本人。這個(gè)國(guó)家可謂屋漏偏逢連夜雨，在這些災(zāi)難降臨前，已經(jīng)遭遇長(zhǎng)達(dá)十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯，國(guó)民士氣低落，眼睜睜地看著中國(guó)超過自己成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

　　Now, in the wake of what some are calling the greatest tragedy to strike the nation since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, fears have spread rapidly to markets around the globe as jittery investors sell stocks in search of safer havens.

　　有人將這次災(zāi)難稱為日本自二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期廣島和長(zhǎng)崎被原子彈轟炸以來所遭遇的最大悲劇，恐慌迅速傳播到全球市場(chǎng)，如驚弓之鳥的投資者急忙賣出股票，試圖尋找安全的避風(fēng)港。

　　Panic should never be a reason to sell anything. The question is whether whatever caused the panic justifies taking immediate action. As with many events that are both enormously complex and uncertain, it takes some humility to acknowledge the truth, which is that we simply don't know. Even experts have been rendering conflicting views on the seriousness of the nuclear threat and potential economic disruption.

　　恐慌永遠(yuǎn)不應(yīng)成為賣出的理由。問題在于，不管引發(fā)恐慌的是什么事情，它是否值得讓我們馬上采取行動(dòng)呢。許多事發(fā)生時(shí)，情況都極其復(fù)雜，充滿了不確定性，人們需要懷有謙卑的心情才能認(rèn)可一個(gè)真相，即我們對(duì)有些事情是不知道的，甚至連專家們對(duì)于核輻射威脅的嚴(yán)重程度以及潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)危害都觀點(diǎn)不一，相互矛盾。

　　Speculators, of course, are having a field day. I've heard all kinds of advice: Buy the severe drop in the Japanese market; short Japanese government bonds; buy puts and sell calls on Japanese index funds; short nuclear power-focused companies; buy coal; go long U.S. utilities.

　　當(dāng)然，投機(jī)者正在大展身手。我聽到各種各樣的投資建議：趁日本股市大跌買入股票；做空日本政府債券；買入日本指數(shù)基金的看漲期權(quán)，賣出看跌期權(quán)；做空以核能為主業(yè)的上市公司；買入煤炭股；做多美國(guó)的公共事業(yè)股，等等等等。

　　I'm ignoring all of it. Professional traders and money managers have no choice but to react to world events--no matter how tragic--and try to make money from them. That's their job, and they provide a service to their clients, as well as liquidity for people on the other side of the trades. The Tokyo stock market has stayed open throughout the crisis, providing a market for people who panicked and wanted to sell. But as individual investors, responsible to ourselves, we have no obligation to trade on the Japanese crisis.

　　我將這些建議置之腦后。專業(yè)交易者和基金經(jīng)理別無選擇，只能對(duì)世界大事做出反應(yīng)——不管事件本身多么悲慘——并試圖從中獲利。這是他們的工作，是他們?yōu)槠淇蛻籼峁┑囊环N服務(wù)，也滿足了其交易對(duì)手的流動(dòng)性需求。東京股市在災(zāi)難爆發(fā)期間始終保持交易狀態(tài)，為驚慌失措而想拋售的人提供了一個(gè)市場(chǎng)。然而，作為個(gè)人投資者，我們只需要對(duì)自己負(fù)責(zé)，沒有義務(wù)要借日本的危機(jī)做出什么交易。

　　I was impressed this week that Carnegie Hall went ahead with its festival celebrating Japanese music and culture, but canceled a panel on Monday that was going to focus on 'innovating and profiting' in contemporary Japan. "All of us felt, as a topic, that wasn't what you'd want to be talking about right now," executive and artistic director Clive Gillinson said.

　　上周，紐約的卡內(nèi)基音樂廳(Carnegie Hall)做了一件讓我感動(dòng)的事情。音樂廳的日本音樂文化節(jié)繼續(xù)舉行，但取消了原定于3月14日舉行的聚焦當(dāng)代日本“創(chuàng)新及獲益”的討論會(huì)。卡內(nèi)基音樂廳執(zhí)行與藝術(shù)總監(jiān)克里夫•基林森(Clive Gillinson)說，我們都感到，這個(gè)主題在目前的狀態(tài)下并不適宜討論。

　　I feel much the same way. I'll stick to my program for buying and selling. If world markets continue their decline and the Nasdaq hits my buying target of 2550--a 10% decline from its recent high--I will buy stocks, as I would in any event. I might even buy a Japan index fund or Japanese stocks. I don't currently own any, although I'm sure many Japanese stocks are represented in my broad international index and mutual funds.

　　我也有同樣的感覺。我將繼續(xù)堅(jiān)守自己的股票買賣原則。如果全球資本市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)下挫，納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)達(dá)到我的買入目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位元2550點(diǎn)——比最近的高位下跌10%——我將買入股票，我在發(fā)生其他任何事件時(shí)也會(huì)這么做。我甚至還會(huì)買入日本的指數(shù)基金或日本股票，目前我不直接持有這些投資品種，但我敢肯定，自己持有的涵蓋范圍很廣的國(guó)際指數(shù)基金和共同基金會(huì)包括許多日本的股票。

　　The enormous courage shown by Japanese workers at the stricken nuclear plants has only increased my respect for the Japanese people and their resilience. In the wake of World War II and a devastating nuclear attack, Japan undertook the economic transformation that made it until recently the world's second-largest economy. I hope it emerges from this tragedy, too, with a renewed sense of purpose and ambition.

　　日本工人在搶修核電站的過程中展現(xiàn)出來的巨大勇氣讓我對(duì)日本人民以及他們百折不撓的精神更為敬重。經(jīng)歷了二戰(zhàn)以及毀滅性的核爆炸之后，日本著手經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，并一舉成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，直到最近才屈居第三。我希望這次日本能再次從災(zāi)難中崛起，重新定位自己的目標(biāo)，重筑自己的輝煌。