It's a question that is always on investors' minds, but rarely more so than right now: Is the market overvalued?

　　這是一個一直縈繞在投資者心頭的問題，但他們幾乎沒有哪個時候比現(xiàn)在更想知道這個問題的答案：市場被高估了嗎？

　　Two heavyweights of financial analysis believe they hold the answer. Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who correctly predicted the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 and the housing crash that started in 2006, has data that show stocks are pricey by historical measures. Getty Images.

　　金融分析界的兩個重量級人物認為他們已經(jīng)有了答案。耶魯大學(Yale University)經(jīng)濟學家席勒(Robert Shiller)曾準確預測了2000年股市泡沫破裂以及始于2006年的樓市大跌，他的分析表明，從歷史上的指標來衡量，目前的股價是昂貴的。

　　David Bianco, U.S. stock strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has been on a campaign to revise the good professor's math. Once he tweaks the calculations, he says, stocks look cheap.

　　而美國銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的美國股票策略師比安科(David Bianco)則對這位知名教授的演算法進行了修正。他說他調(diào)整了計算方法后，發(fā)現(xiàn)目前的股價是便宜的。

　　The issue is more than a tempest in an academic teapot. The stock market has roared back from its March 2009 lows, doubling in value on an intraday basis in less than two years. But the last leg of the rally, which began last summer, largely has been driven by the Federal Reserve, whose policy of buying Treasury bonds to inflate asset values across the economy is set to end in June. Investors want to know whether stock prices are too frothy now, or whether they are reasonable estimations of companies' underlying earnings power.

　　這件事在學術界引發(fā)了軒然大波。股市從2009年3月份時的低點強力反彈，在不到兩年的時間內(nèi)單日市值上漲了一倍。但始于去年夏天的最近一輪漲勢在很大程度上是受到了美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的推動，其購買美國國債的政策全面推高了資產(chǎn)價值，而這一政策將于6月份結(jié)束。投資者想知道目前的股價是否包含了大量泡沫，股價是否是公司潛在盈利能力的合理體現(xiàn)。

　　Which side you take—Mr. Shiller's or Mr. Bianco's—depends partly on whether you are more comfortable with the analysis of an academic who works far from Wall Street and whose job is to test theories, or a Wall Street strategist who is paid to track the market closely and bring in business. Bloomberg News.

　　耶魯大學(Yale University)經(jīng)濟學家席勒(Robert Shiller)認為，目前的股價是昂貴的。你認同哪一方——席勒還是比安科——從某種程度上要取決于你是更樂于接受哪種觀點：是一位遠離華爾街工作、其任務就是對理論進行檢驗的學者的分析，還是一位依靠密切追蹤市場來掙薪水的華爾街策略師的觀點。

　　Mr. Shiller bases his analysis on a comparison of the value of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to its component companies' earnings results over time. Data of this kind don't predict when stocks will start to decline. They just show when stocks are getting expensive compared with their companies' earnings, a sign they could be headed for trouble sooner or later. Mr. Shiller keeps data going back to the late 19th century on his website, at www.econ.yale.edu/·shiller/data.htm.

　　席勒的分析是基于將一段時間中標普500(Standard & Poor's 500)股指成分股的市值與其收益數(shù)據(jù)所做的比較。這類數(shù)據(jù)并不是預測股票將于何時開始下跌。它們只是說明了相比公司的收益而言，這些股票是從什么時候變貴的，這也是預示公司可能早晚要出現(xiàn)麻煩的一種征兆。席勒分析的數(shù)據(jù)一直追溯到19世紀末，詳細信息可參見他的網(wǎng)站www.econ.yale.edu/•shiller/data.htm。

　　The innovation of Mr. Shiller's system is that it is designed to avoid distortions from short-term profit swings. Most Wall Street analysts compare stock prices to the previous year's profits or to analysts' predictions of future profits. Mr. Shiller takes an average of corporate profits over the previous 10 years. Long favored by sophisticated investors, that method smoothes out the business cycle, producing a measure of sustainable corporate profit that investors sometimes call normalized profit.

　　席勒這一套分析體系的創(chuàng)新之處在于它避免了短期利潤變化造成的失真。大部分華爾街分析師都會將股價與上一年的利潤或是與分析師對于將來利潤的預期做比較。而席勒則是對企業(yè)此前十年的利潤進行了平均計算。這種為經(jīng)驗老道的投資者所長期青睞的方法消除了經(jīng)濟周期波動的影響，創(chuàng)造出一種能夠衡量企業(yè)持續(xù)性利潤的指標，這種利潤有時被投資者稱為常態(tài)化利潤。

　　On that basis, Mr. Shiller's method shows the S&P 500 trading at 23 times profits, well above the historical average of 16. It doesn't necessarily mean stocks are about to fall; the S&P 500 went to a record 44 times earnings during the dot-com bubble before collapsing in 2000. But today's level isn't far from the peak of 27.5 hit before stocks fell during the financial crisis of 2007-09. At the 2009 bottom, it went down to 13 before quickly pushing higher again.

　　在此基礎上，席勒的研究顯示，標普500目前的市盈率為23倍，遠高于16倍的歷史平均水平。這并不一定意味著股市即將下跌；標普500在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時期的市盈率曾達到創(chuàng)紀錄的44倍，隨后在2000年遭遇重挫。但相比股市在2007-09年金融危機期間下跌之前創(chuàng)下的27.5倍的峰值，目前的水平與它相差并不遠。2009年時標普500的市盈率曾降至13倍的低值，但很快它便再次升高。

　　Alternative Calculations 另一種計算方法

　　Mr. Bianco, who is bullish on stocks, says Prof. Shiller's measure is inaccurate, and the Wall Street strategist has taken his criticism public. Over the past year, he has written two reports offering alternative calculations.

　　看漲股市的比安科說，席勒教授的計算方法是不準確的，這位華爾街策略師還將他的評論公諸于眾。他在過去一年中撰寫了兩份提供不同計算方法的報告。

　　Mr. Bianco says he began looking for ways to revise the Shiller numbers last year after a page-one article in The Wall Street Journal on the subject. Clients, he says, started using Mr. Shiller's data to contest his bullish thesis. Getty Images.

　　比安科說，在《華爾街日報》登載了一篇關于該問題的頭版文章后，他從去年開始搜尋各種途徑來修正席勒的數(shù)據(jù)。他說，客戶們開始用席勒的數(shù)據(jù)來對他的看漲觀點提出異議。

　　Mr. Bianco's massaging shows the S&P 500 trading currently at about 14.5 times his own calculation of 10-year profits, a much more attractive level than Mr. Shiller's 23 times profits.

　　比安科的分析顯示，基于他自己對十年間盈利的計算，標普500目前的市盈率約為14.5倍，這一水平相比席勒得出的23倍的市盈率要有吸引力得多。

　　Clients call it the Bianco method vs. the Shiller method,Mr. Bianco says. 'People call it Wall Street vs. the universities, or the Ivory Tower vs. the Bank of America Tower.

　　比安科說，客戶們說這是比安科方法與席勒方法的對比，人們說這是華爾街與大學的對比，或者象牙塔與美國銀行大廈的對比。

　　Prof. Shiller says he hadn't paid attention to Mr. Bianco's work until recently, when The Journal inquired. Prof. Shiller reviewed his calculations in light of the criticism and says he likes his math the way he did it.

　　席勒教授說，直到最近當《華爾街日報》詢問他時，他才注意到比安科的研究。席勒教授針對那些不同觀點對他的計算進行了復查，他說他還是喜歡自己的計算方法。

　　'The basic analysis I have been presenting is right as is,' he said in an email message. Reuters.

　　美國銀行美林的股票策略師比安科(David Bianco)看漲股市，他認為席勒教授的計算方法是不準確的。他在一封電子郵件中說，我所做的基本分析本來就是正確的。

　　Mr. Bianco doesn't dispute the usefulness of a 10-year average, an idea in line with the thinking of the founders of modern stock analysis, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. He proposes to change Prof. Shiller's numbers in three ways, however, to remove what he thinks are distortions.

　　比安科并沒有對十年平均值的有效性提出質(zhì)疑，這種觀點與現(xiàn)代股市分析的創(chuàng)始人格拉漢姆(Benjamin Graham)以及多德(David Dodd)的看法是一致的。然而，他建議通過三種方式來修正席勒教授的數(shù)據(jù)，以此消除他認為這其中存在的失真。

　　First, Mr. Bianco would adjust the way corporate earnings are calculated. Instead of the as-reported profits Mr. Shiller favors, he would use what analysts call operating earnings, which don't count some of the write-offs of the dot-com bust and the financial crisis. That change sharply boosts 10-year average earnings, making price/earnings ratios look less scary.

　　首先，比安科會調(diào)整公司收益的計算方式。他不會采用席勒所鍾愛的收益報告中提到的公司利潤，而是會選取被分析師稱為營運收益的數(shù)據(jù)作為參考，這種收益不會計入互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂以及金融危機期間出現(xiàn)的部分沖銷。這種計算方式的調(diào)整大大提高了十年期平均收益，從而令市盈率看起來沒有那么嚇人了。

　　Second, he would change the historical data to which today's numbers are compared. He prefers to compare today's numbers only to data since 1960 or 1980, a period during which P/E ratios have been higher than in the past, making current levels look less extreme. If long-term data are used, he wouldn't count the decade following 1914, on the grounds that corporate profits were distorted by World War I more than by any other modern event, even the Great Depression. Throwing out that decade also makes past P/E ratios higher, so that today's look better.

　　其次，他會改變與今天的數(shù)據(jù)進行比較的歷史數(shù)據(jù)。他只想把如今的數(shù)據(jù)與1960年或是1980年之后的數(shù)據(jù)做比較，這段時期內(nèi)的市盈率水平要高于以往，這就使目前的市盈率看起來沒有那么極端了。如果要采用更久之前的數(shù)據(jù)，他不會計入1914年之后的那個十年，因為企業(yè)利潤由于第一次世界大戰(zhàn)而出現(xiàn)的失真比現(xiàn)代其他任何重大事件（即便是“大蕭條”）對它造成的影響都要大。剔除這個十年后，以往的市盈率再次升高，相比之下今天的市盈率也就更有吸引力了。

　　Finally, he would adjust earnings figures still higher, based on the fact that companies have been retaining a higher percentage of profits and paying lower dividends for decades. When companies retain and invest more profits, he says, earnings growth is faster and reported earnings don't fully reflect the ability of retained earnings to spur growth. He calls this the Equity Time Value Adjustment, or ETVA. Bloomberg News頓商學院(Wharton Business School)的塞格爾(Jeremy Siegel).

　　最后，他會進一步調(diào)高收益數(shù)據(jù)，因為數(shù)十年來企業(yè)一直支付著較低水平的派息，同時將更大比例的利潤予以留存。他說，當企業(yè)將更多的利潤留下用于進行投資時，收益會以更快的速度增長，收益報告中提到的收益無法完全反映出留存利潤在刺激增長方面的能力。他將其稱為股票的時間價值調(diào)整(Equity Time Value Adjustment，ETVA)。

　　The debate goes well beyond Mr. Bianco and Prof. Shiller. Prof. Shiller's old friend and sometime critic, Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton business school, is Mr. Bianco's former professor. Mr. Siegel is siding with his student and against his friend.

　　這場辯論所涉及的人遠遠不止比安科和席勒。席勒的故友、賓夕法尼亞大學(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學院(Wharton Business School)的塞格爾(Jeremy Siegel)曾是一名評論家，他過去是比安科的教授。這一次塞格爾站到了他的學生一邊，與朋友意見相左。

　　Mr. Siegel agrees that earnings should be adjusted for the ETVA, and he also would massage earnings to remove some one-time charges. Earnings recorded at the depth of the financial crisis were highly unusual figures that shouldn't be used now to project future profits and stock values, he says.

　　塞格爾贊同對收益進行ETVA方面的調(diào)整，他在研究收益時還會剔除一些一次性的開支。他說，在金融危機最嚴重時期報告的收益數(shù)據(jù)具有非同一般的特殊性，它們不應被用來預測今后的利潤以及股票價值。

　　'I respect Bob [Shiller] a lot. He is very thoughtful,' Prof. Siegel says. 'But to keep that once-in-a-75-year event in your data set, to say that is normal earnings, doesn't seem to be realistic.

　　塞格爾教授說，我很尊重席勒，他很善于思考，但將這種75年才發(fā)生一次的事情納入你的數(shù)據(jù)組，將它看作是正常情況下的收益，顯然是不可行的。

　　Dividends and Earnings 派息與收益

　　Robert Arnott, whose firm Research Affiliates LLC manages $73 billion from Newport Beach, Calif., has done his own research on one element of the debate: the relationship between dividends and earnings.

　　加州紐波特比奇(Newport Beach)Research Affiliates LLC公司董事長阿諾特(Robert Arnott)對這場辯論中的一個問題進行了自己的研究：派息與收益之間的關系。Research Affiliates LLC公司管理著730億美元的資產(chǎn)。

　　He says his work shows it is a fallacy to think that lower dividends lead to faster earnings growth. Lower dividends come when companies are worried about the future or may be spending cash hoards on big acquisitions, which can hold down earnings growth, he says. Bloomberg News.

　　加州紐波特比奇(Newport Beach)Research Affiliates LLC公司董事長阿諾特(Robert Arnott)他說他的研究顯示，認為低派息造成了收益高增長的觀點是錯誤的。他說，當公司對未來感到擔憂或是當公司也許是在利用現(xiàn)金儲備進行大規(guī)模的收購時，派息水平會比較低，而這兩種情況均會抑制收益增長。

　　'It is peculiar that this thesis keeps coming up year after year when it is so demonstrably wrong,' Mr. Arnott says.

　　阿諾特說，這種觀點的錯誤之處是如此明顯，它卻仍然年復一年地甚囂塵上，這種現(xiàn)象有些奇怪。

　　Like Mr. Shiller, Mr. Arnott also doesn't trust operating earnings and prefers to use those reported according to generally accepted accounting principles. Such numbers tend to show lower earnings results, but are more accurate, he says.

　　與席勒一樣，阿諾特也不看重營運收益，他更愿意使用根據(jù)普遍接受的會計準則所得出的收益數(shù)據(jù)。他說，這種方法計算出的收益往往比較低，但卻更加準確。

　　Mr. Arnott says he uses Shiller-style P/E calculations in his work. The figures helped persuade him to boost his U.S. stock exposure in 2009, when the 10-year P/E was low, and then cut his exposure when the P/E moved higher.

　　阿諾特說，他在工作中采用了席勒的市盈率計算法。依此得出的數(shù)字，他在2009年當十年期市盈率處于低位時增持了美國股市的股票，然后在市盈率上升時進行了減持。

　　Mr. Bianco says he will have to discuss this with Mr. Arnott. 'Rob is one of the best minds in the business,' Mr. Bianco says.

　　比安科說，他將和阿諾特討論這個問題。他還說，阿諾特是這個行業(yè)里最聰明的人之一。

　　Just to show how small the financial world can be, Mr. Arnott also has had run-ins over the years with Prof. Siegel, Mr. Bianco's former professor.

　　這些年來，阿諾特也曾與比安科當年的教授塞格爾有過爭論，這也從某個角度說明了金融界確實是個很小的圈子。

　　Mr. Siegel and Mr. Shiller, who despite their differences often vacation together, have been debating these issues since they were graduate students together, 40 years ago.

　　塞格爾和席勒從40年前他們在一起讀研究生時就開始辯論這些問題，一直延續(xù)到現(xiàn)在。盡管二人之間存有分歧，他們卻常常一起外出度假。

　　In the summer of 2009, walking on the beach on a barrier island near Atlantic City, N.J., they got so involved in a debate about stock-valuation methods that they briefly wandered away from their wives. They can accuse one another of errors without raising their voices, then thank each other for the critiques and talk about plans for the next vacation.

　　2009年夏天，塞格爾和席勒在新澤西州大西洋城(Atlantic City)附近一座堰洲島的海灘上一邊漫步一邊對股價估值方法進行爭論，他們太過忘我，以至于一度與妻子走散。他們指出對方的錯誤但卻沒有大喊大嚷，然后還互相感謝彼此提出的意見，接下來便開始暢談起下一次度假計劃了。

　　Mr. Shiller did his own calculation about the impact of declining dividends on earnings growth and concluded that it is marginal at best, not meriting any adjustment. He scoffs at the idea of eliminating the decade after World War I. He says he will think about Prof. Siegel's concern about the big write-offs.

　　關于派息減少對收益增長的影響，席勒按照自己的方式進行了計算，最后他認為這種影響充其量只是很有限的，不值得做任何調(diào)整。對于剔除一戰(zhàn)后十年的想法，他也不以為然。他說他倒是會考慮塞格爾在大筆沖銷這個問題上的疑慮。

　　But he is reluctant to make too many adjustments to data that he feels have painted a useful picture up to now.

　　但他不愿對數(shù)據(jù)做過多的修正，他覺得到目前為止這些數(shù)據(jù)對人們是有説明的。

　　'I think I should just keep it simple,' Mr. Shiller says.

　　席勒說，他覺得讓這些數(shù)據(jù)保持原來的樣子就好了。