While politicians in Europe, the US and most other developed economies struggle with the prospect of another downturn, China’s leaders are facing the opposite problem – how to stop their domestic economy from roaring ahead too quickly.

　　在歐美等多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政界人士艱難應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)再次下滑的前景之際，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人面對的卻是截然相反的問題，即如何阻止中國經(jīng)濟(jì)過快猛增。

　　In an article on Thursday, Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, said reining in soaring consumer prices was the top priority for Beijing, as it had been for most of this year, and that China’s “macro-control and adjustment direction cannot be changed”.

　　中國總理溫家寶在周四發(fā)表的一篇文章中表示，遏制不斷飆升的消費(fèi)價格仍是北京方面的首要任務(wù)（今年以來大部分時候一直是這樣），同時“宏觀調(diào)控的取向不能變”。

　　Most analysts believe Mr Wen is signalling Beijing’s reluctance to unleash another enormous stimulus package such as the one it launched in late 2008, and that China’s leaders feel the economy is robust enough for them to continue to dampen growth.

　　多數(shù)分析師相信，溫家寶發(fā)出的信號表明，北京方面不愿出爐又一套龐大的刺激計(jì)劃（中國曾在2008年末推出大規(guī)模刺激計(jì)劃），而且中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人覺得目前經(jīng)濟(jì)相當(dāng)穩(wěn)健，足以讓他們繼續(xù)抑制增長。

　　After nearly a year of monetary tightening, the Chinese economy has responded almost exactly as the mandarins in Beijing wanted, with a gradual slowdown to a steady growth rate that reduces the chances of overheating and runaway inflation.

　　經(jīng)過近一年的收緊貨幣政策，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的反應(yīng)與北京的官員們所希望的幾乎一模一樣，逐漸放緩至一個穩(wěn)定的增長率，降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱及通脹失控的幾率。

　　In fact, the global turmoil in recent weeks that has revived fears of a double-dip recession in the west has potentially made Mr Wen’s job of reining in the domestic economy somewhat easier.

　　事實(shí)上，近幾周來導(dǎo)致人們再度擔(dān)心西方出現(xiàn)雙底衰退的全球動蕩，有可能使溫家寶抑制國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的工作變得容易了一些。

　　In a sign that China is headed for a soft touch-down, the country’s official purchasing managers’ index climbed 0.2 points to 50.9 in August after falling for four months. A separate measure published by HSBC and Markit Economics came in at 49.9, up from 49.3 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction while a number above 50 indicates expansion.

　　中國經(jīng)濟(jì)走向軟著陸的一個跡象是，8月份，中國官方的采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)(PMI)上升0.2，至50.9，結(jié)束此前連續(xù)四個月的回落走勢。另外，匯豐(HSBC)和Markit Economics發(fā)表的中國采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)8月達(dá)到49.9，高于7月份的49.3。讀數(shù)低于50表示經(jīng)濟(jì)活動收縮，高于50則表示擴(kuò)張。

　　Most economists have reduced their expectations for Chinese expansion this year in response to the deteriorating prospects in developed economies, although the predicted growth rate remains the envy of the world. UBS has lowered its forecast for growth in gross domestic product from 9.3 per cent to 9 per cent in 2011 from a year earlier and from 9 per cent to 8.3 per cent in 2012 because “the expected drop in developing markets growth will hurt China’s exports and related investment”.

　　針對發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體前景惡化，多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已調(diào)低了他們對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)今年擴(kuò)張幅度的預(yù)期，盡管他們預(yù)測的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率仍是令世界艷羨的。瑞銀(UBS)已將2011年中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)同比增幅從9.3%下調(diào)至9%，2012年增幅從9%下調(diào)至8.3%，理由是“發(fā)展中市場預(yù)期將出現(xiàn)的增長放緩，會損害中國的出口及相關(guān)投資”。

　　Persistent inflation, particularly for politically sensitive food prices, has been the top economic policy concern for Beijing since the start of the year; consumer inflation hit a three-year high of 6.5 per cent in July. However, the global gloom could provide positive news for China on this front too.

　　居高不下的通脹，尤其是具有政治敏感性的食品價格通脹，自今年初以來一直是中國政府在經(jīng)濟(jì)政策方面的首要關(guān)切。7月份，中國消費(fèi)價格通脹達(dá)到6.5%的三年高位。不過，全球悲觀情緒有望在這個方面也給中國帶來積極的消息。

　　“Broadly speaking, the decline in global demand will likely reduce commodity prices,” says Ma Jun, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank. “

　　大致說來，全球需求下降很可能壓低大宗商品價格，”德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬駿表示。

　　Of course, the misfortunes of developed economies are not all good news for China.

　　當(dāng)然，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的不幸對中國也不全是好消息。

　　If US and European growth slows drastically, as it did in 2008, it would prompt a collapse in Chinese exports, causing domestic production and investment also to slump, and raise the possibility of a hard landing that would be exacerbated by recent tightening measures.

　　如果美歐經(jīng)濟(jì)增長大幅放緩（就像2008年的情況那樣），那將引發(fā)中國出口劇減，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)和投資大幅下滑，硬著陸的可能性提高，而近期的收緊措施將使這一局面變得更為糟糕。

　　The official PMI data showed new export orders dropped significantly in August, but domestic orders made up for the slump to keep the new order sub-index at 51.1 for the month, unchanged from July.

　　官方的PMI數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份新的出口訂單顯著下降，但國內(nèi)訂單彌補(bǔ)了缺口，使當(dāng)月新訂單分類指數(shù)達(dá)到51.1，與7月份持平。

　　This was taken by some analysts as fresh evidence that the government is beginning to make headway in its goal to rebalance the economy away from an over-reliance on exports and more towards domestic demand.

　　這被一些分析師列為最新證據(jù)，證明中國政府正開始朝著自己的目標(biāo)取得進(jìn)展，即實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡，減輕對出口的過度依賴，在更大程度上轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)需求。

　　Economists say China is certainly less dependent on its export sector than it was when the global crisis hit in 2008, but top Chinese officials, including Mr Wen, freely admit that the economy is still far too reliant on investment.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，與2008年全球危機(jī)爆發(fā)的時候相比，現(xiàn)在中國對出口行業(yè)的依賴度肯定是下降了，但是，包括溫家寶在內(nèi)的中國高層官員坦率地承認(rèn)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)對投資的依賴度仍然過高。