Li Keqiang, the man almost certain to succeed Wen Jiabao as China’s premier, came to Hong Kong last week bearing gifts. Some of these were rhetorical. Hong Kong, he said continues to “play its irreplaceable role in the mainland’s reform, opening-up and modernisation drive.” But there were also more tangible goodies. Beijing picked the same day to place a Rmb20bn ($3.1bn) bond in Hong Kong, the biggest offshore renminbi offering thus far. Equally important, it announced measures intended to increase flows of money between Hong Kong and China, such as allowing mainland investors to buy exchange traded funds linked to Hong Kong shares. There are also plans for a joint venture between the stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzen to capture these new opportunities.

　　幾乎肯定將接替溫家寶出任中國總理的李克強(qiáng)，上周帶著“禮物”訪問了香港。其中一些“禮物”是口頭上的。他表示，香港將繼續(xù)在中國內(nèi)地改革開放和現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)中發(fā)揮“不可替代的重要作用”。但還有一些“禮物”則更加實(shí)際。北京方面選擇同一天在香港發(fā)行200億元人民幣（合31億美元）債券，這是迄今規(guī)模最大的一次離岸人民幣債券發(fā)行。同樣重要的是，北京方面宣布了旨在增加香港與內(nèi)地之間資金流動的相關(guān)舉措，比如允許內(nèi)地投資者購買與香港股票掛鉤的交易所交易基金(ETF)。此外，香港、上海和深圳的證交所也計(jì)劃成立合資企業(yè)，以便利用這些新的機(jī)遇。

　　Not so long ago, pessimists were counting Hong Kong’s last days as a financial centre. Yet far from diminishing, the city has gained new vigour thanks to its role as China’s most sophisticated financial hub and centre of a nascent offshore renminbi business. Last year, Hong Kong topped the global IPO table with deals worth a total $53bn, higher than New York’s $35bn. It remains the principal financial shop window onto China, a position it will hold at least until the renminbi is fully convertible.

　　就在不那么久以前，悲觀者還認(rèn)為香港作為一個(gè)金融中心的日子已經(jīng)不多了。然而，這座城市非但沒有衰落，反而增添了新的活力，這得益于其作為中國最成熟金融中心和新興離岸人民幣業(yè)務(wù)中心的角色。去年，香港摘得全球首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)排行榜桂冠，交易總額達(dá)到530億美元，高于紐約的350億美元。香港仍是中國的首要金融櫥窗，至少在人民幣可自由兌換之前，香港將保持這一地位。

　　Yet, Hong Kong cannot relax. There are several uncertainties. First, talk of the renminbi’s liberalisation is overegged. Beijing keeps an extremely close watch over its capital account. Cross-border renminbi investment is subject to strict quotas or case-by-case approval. If Beijing gets cold feet, it could stop these flows dead. Second, as Hong Kong becomes more integrated into China’s financial system, the exposure of its banks to risk could increase. The city’s regulators have done well at controlling banks’ lending in Hong Kong. But as banks expand deeper into the mainland, regulators must redouble their vigilance. Third, the tide of mainland money is not all good news. Property prices have risen unsustainably. Hong Kong has only limited tools to prevent bubbles given the dollar peg.

　　不過，香港并不能松口氣。目前存在好幾個(gè)不確定性。首先，有關(guān)人民幣自由化的說法有點(diǎn)夸大其辭。北京方面對國家的資本賬戶看得很嚴(yán)?？缇橙嗣駧磐顿Y受到嚴(yán)格的配額限制，或者要求通過個(gè)案審批。如果北京方面覺得不對，它可以叫?？缇迟Y金流動。其次，隨著香港進(jìn)一步融入中國的金融體系，香港各銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口可能會加大。迄今為止，當(dāng)?shù)乇O(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)在控制香港的銀行放貸方面做得不錯(cuò)。但是，隨著這些銀行進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)張，深入內(nèi)地，監(jiān)管者必須加倍警惕。第三，內(nèi)地資金大舉涌入并非都是好消息。香港樓價(jià)已出現(xiàn)不可持續(xù)的上漲。由于施行盯住美元的匯率機(jī)制，香港在防止泡沫方面的手段較為有限。

　　Beijing also needs to be cautious. Mr Li rightly identified Hong Kong’s independent judiciary, openness and access to information as important assets. Those attributes are intimately linked with the relative freedoms that Hong Kong enjoys. If Beijing truly values Hong Kong’s role in China’s financial modernisation, as Mr Li says, it should at all costs continue to guarantee those freedoms.

　　北京方面也需要審慎。李克強(qiáng)正確地指出，獨(dú)立司法制度、開放性和資訊發(fā)達(dá)是香港的重要資產(chǎn)。這些特性與香港目前享有的相對自由密不可分。如果北京方面真的像李克強(qiáng)所說的那樣，重視香港在中國金融現(xiàn)代化中的作用，那么它就應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)保障這些自由。