The outlook for China's housing sector is both crucially important for the world economy and─because of weakness in the data─very hard to predict.

　　中國房地產行業(yè)的前景對世界經濟有著至關重要的意義，但又非常難以預測，原因就出在數據的薄弱。

　　Despite a government push this year for more-accurate home-price data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, international markets─and most Chinese consumers─remain deeply dubious of the official monthly figures.

　　雖然政府今年努力提高國家統(tǒng)計局房價數據的準確性，但國際市場和中國國內大多數消費者對于這個官方月度數據仍然存在深深的懷疑。

　　July data from the National Bureau of Statistics are due out Thursday, but confidence in the official figures is so low that the markets pay more attention to numbers from a private data provider, the China Real Estate Index System.

　　按計劃，國家統(tǒng)計局周四將公布7月份數據，但市場對官方數據很不相信，所以把更多注意力放在了民間數據提供者“中國房地產指數系統(tǒng)”提供的數據上面。

　　China, an engine of global growth, has to do better at explaining this key sector of its economy. Take Shanghai, the country's financial hub and richest city. According to data from the China Real Estate Index System, prices of new apartments in Shanghai have risen by more than 150% in the past five years. That outpaces a 107% increase in wages over the same period─moving home ownership further out of reach for average earners.

　　作為全球經濟增長引擎的中國需要更好地闡釋自身經濟中的這個關鍵行業(yè)。以全國金融中心、最富裕城市上海為例。中國房地產指數系統(tǒng)顯示，上海新房價格在過去五年里上漲150%以上。這超過同期107%的工資漲幅，使買房對于收入一般的人變得更加遙不可及。

　　But the official data tell a different story. According to China's NBS, prices for new apartments in Shanghai have climbed 20% over the past five years─well below the increase in wages.

　　但官方數據反映的是另一種情況。國家統(tǒng)計局數據顯示，過去五年上海新房價格上漲20%，遠低于工資漲幅。

　　As important, though the trend in both data series is upward, the path mapped out by the private data is more volatile─with bigger ups and downs in the growth rate than in the official data.

　　同樣重要的是，雖然兩組數據的趨勢都是上漲，但民間數據描述的軌跡波動性更大，漲幅的擴大、收縮幅度都大于官方數據。

　　Why is the difference between those two sets of figures so important? (Full disclosure: I investigate the question in detail in my book 'Understanding China's Economic Indicators.') Investment in residential real estate accounts directly for 12% of China's gross domestic product, and more than that when demand for steel, cement, and other construction materials is factored in. China's real-estate boom helps energize the domestic economy and keeps miners from Australia to Brazil flush with cash.

　　為什么說兩組數據的差別如此重要呢？（備注：我在自己的《理解中國經濟指標》(Understanding China's Economic Indicators)一書中詳細探討了這個問題。）住宅類房地產投資直接占到中國國內生產總值(GDP)的12%，如果把鋼鐵、水泥和其他建筑材料的需求考慮在內，這個比例還會更大。中國樓市的繁榮振興了國內經濟，也讓澳大利亞、巴西等國的礦商賺得盆滿缽滿。

　　House prices are a key leading indicator of changes in policy, sales and investment. Rising prices attract speculators into the market. Entrepreneurs and billionaires descend on Beijing and Shanghai with suitcases of cash, snapping up entire floors of luxury residential developments. Higher sales encourage developers to break ground on more-lavish projects. But if prices rise too fast, the government has to step in to cool the market, speculators move to the sidelines, and developers put down their tools.

　　Reuters周日，一名工人為合肥一座大樓安裝窗戶。房價是政策、銷售和投資變化的重要先行指標。房價上漲吸引炒客入市。企業(yè)家和億萬富豪提著一箱箱的鈔票奔赴北京和上海，整層整層地搶購豪華住宅開發(fā)項目。銷售增長鼓勵開發(fā)商開建更加奢華的項目。但如果房價上漲過快，政府就得出手冷卻市場，炒客就得退到一邊，開發(fā)商就得偃旗息鼓。

　　Beijing could be forgiven for a little tardiness in getting up to speed on housing data. The boom that has made developers and speculators rich and left young professionals grasping for the first rung on the real-estate ladder is a recent phenomenon. As recently as 15 years ago, the private property market was almost nonexistent. Home for most workers was employer-provided housing. But with an incipient property bubble threatening to cause economic disorder and social unrest, the government has attempted to bring prices under control, with the latest crackdown kicking off in April 2010.

　　中國政府在了解房地產數據方面略有遲緩或許情有可原。樓市繁榮造富開發(fā)商和炒客、讓年輕職業(yè)人士爭先恐后進入房地產市場，是最近才有的一個現(xiàn)象；15年前，私人房地產市場還基本不存在，多數勞動者的住房都是單位提供的。但由于初現(xiàn)端倪的房地產泡沫可能造成經濟混亂和社會動蕩，政府一直希望把房價控制下來，最新一輪調控在2010年4月份展開。

　　Of course, if prices have risen only as fast as the official data suggest, there is no need to worry. With just a slight mismatch between prices and incomes, a brief period with a slower increase in prices will improve affordability. When that happens, the government will be able to loosen its controls, sales will rise, and developers will be powering up their cement mixers─reassuring international markets that the economy is humming along. If the official numbers are also correct that house prices typically move gradually and within a small range, even continued controls by the government are unlikely to result in a sharp correction.

　　當然，如果房價上漲的速度僅僅是與官方數據顯示的一樣，那就沒有必要擔憂。如果房價和收入之間僅有小幅的不匹配，那么短暫的房價上漲速度放慢就能提高居民置業(yè)的負擔能力。如果是這樣的情況，政府將能夠放松管制，房屋銷量將會上升，開發(fā)商將讓水泥攪拌機開始運轉，而這些現(xiàn)象能讓國際市場相信中國經濟充滿活力。如果現(xiàn)實情況也有如官方數據所顯示的那樣，即房價通常只是逐漸上漲，且幅度較小，那么即便政府繼續(xù)控制房價也不可能導致樓市的大幅回調。

　　But if─as seems more likely─the China Real Estate Index System data are correct and prices are considerably out of whack with income, the government in Beijing and reluctant local officials will have to maintain controls on the sector for a long time, raising the specter of a rough patch for China's economy. Equally worrying, if movements in prices are as volatile as the private data suggest, the chances of a policy misstep leading to a sharp correction are higher.

　　但如果中國房地產指數系統(tǒng)的數據是正確的，房價漲幅遠遠高于工資漲幅（看上去現(xiàn)實更可能是這種情況），那么中央政府和不情愿的地方官員將不得不長時間維持對地產業(yè)的控制，這會提高中國經濟陷入困境的風險。同樣令人擔心的是，如果房價變動的幅度正如中國房地產指數系統(tǒng)顯示的那樣劇烈，那么政策失誤導致劇烈回調的可能性會更高。

　　Despite, or perhaps because of, the importance attached to real estate, there are few areas of China's economy where the official data are less reliable. In 2009, the combination of a slowdown in growth that hit many home buyers in the pocketbook and continued failure by statisticians to report the rapid increase in house prices evident to would-be buyers was too much for public opinion to bear.

　　盡管中國房地產業(yè)非常重要（或者也可能正因為其重要性），中國經濟中卻沒有幾個行業(yè)的官方數據比地產業(yè)更不可靠。2009年，經濟增速放緩令許多購房者荷包受損，而統(tǒng)計人員則多次未能公布快速上漲的房價（在潛在購房者看來，這再明顯不過），這兩個因素疊加在一起令公眾輿論難以接受。

　　The National Bureau of Statistics’ announcement of an increase in average house prices of just 1.5% was met with public skepticism. One Chinese Internet commentator asked: ”Can you believe that? Obviously a misplaced decimal point.“

　　國家統(tǒng)計局公布的房屋均價漲幅僅為1.5%，遭到公眾的質疑。中國一位網絡評論員問道：你相信這個數字嗎？小數點顯然放錯位置了。

　　Outrage over the 2009 data sparked some change. But the new system rolled out in January wasn't much of an improvement. On the plus side, outdated and unrepresentative samples that analysts believe were to blame for problems with the old data were replaced by a system that captures every sale of new property. On the down side, the national average figure─the best guide to the overall state of China's housing sector and a major focus of market attention─was shelved in favor of more detailed city-level data. That differs from practices in the U.S., where the monthly Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index and new-home sales data from the Census Bureau both provide national benchmarks for price changes as well as city or regional breakdowns.

　　公眾對2009年數據的憤怒引發(fā)了一些變化。但今年1月推出的新系統(tǒng)的改進并不大。從有利的一面看，過時且不具代表性的樣本被一個能捕捉每一個新房銷售數據的系統(tǒng)所替代。分析師認為，上述過時且不具代表性的樣本正是導致與老數據有關的各種問題的原因。從不利的一面看，全國平均數據不再發(fā)布，取而代之的是更為詳細的市級數據。全國平均數據被認為是觀測中國住房市場整體狀況的最佳指南，也是市場關注的主要焦點。中國的這種做法和美國不同。在美國，標準普爾公司（Standard & Poor's）發(fā)布的Case-Shiller月度房價指數以及人口普查局（Census Bureau）發(fā)布的新房銷售數據均會提供房價變動的全國基準值，并做城市或區(qū)域分解。

　　Adding to the confusion, local officials in China control the flow of high- and low-price property on to the market, affecting the movement of the data. Nicole Wong, China property analyst at CLSA, said when the government cracks down on property speculators, officials withhold permission for developers to bring high-value properties to market─contributing to the appearance of falling prices. When the heat is off, more-expensive developments are allowed back in.

　　此外，中國地方官員控制進入市場的高價房和低價房的數量也讓相關數據更令人困惑。地方官員此舉會影響數據的變動。里昂證券（CLSA）中國地產業(yè)分析師王艷（Nicole Wong）說，當政府打擊樓市投機現(xiàn)象時，地方官員就不許開發(fā)商向市場推出高價房，這會造成房價下跌的假象。當風頭過去以后，更多高價房又被允許進入市場。

　　Sleight of hand by local officials─moving the house-price index without changing the underlying situation─does little to solve China's housing bubble, or to provide investors and policy makers with an accurate understanding of the sector. If the Chinese government is serious about controlling runaway house prices, the first step should be to provide credible data on exactly how high home prices actually are.

　　沒有改變根本情況，只是改變了房價指數──地方官員玩的這種小把戲對解決中國的樓市泡沫問題沒有幫助，也無法讓投資者和決策者準確了解中國房地產業(yè)的狀況。如果中國政府是在嚴肅對待控制失控房價的問題，那么要走的第一步應該是準確提供房價到底有多高的可靠數據。