股指期貨本周五將在中國(guó)首次推出，在開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)方面邁出了投資者期待已久的一步。中國(guó)投資者一直渴望新投資產(chǎn)品的推出。

　　股指期貨的推出，使中國(guó)投資者首次可基于對(duì)整體市場(chǎng)將會(huì)下滑而非僅僅上漲的預(yù)期，而進(jìn)行交易。

　　分析人士稱(chēng)，無(wú)法就市場(chǎng)下滑預(yù)期進(jìn)行交易推動(dòng)了中國(guó)股市的泡沫化。因市市場(chǎng)看跌派別無(wú)選擇，只能賣(mài)出，這給了市場(chǎng)看漲派與其人數(shù)不成比例的巨大影響力。

　　股指期貨還將為投資者判斷價(jià)格走勢(shì)提供先行指標(biāo)。

　　股指期貨的籌劃已有10年之久，部分原因是市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管者不愿推出恐會(huì)造成市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)品。分析人士稱(chēng)，股指期貨此次推出僅僅是中國(guó)市場(chǎng)略微現(xiàn)代化的一個(gè)標(biāo)志，而對(duì)股指期貨參與者的資格及參與者如何進(jìn)行交易的限制，將削弱股指期貨釋放價(jià)格信號(hào)的能力。

　　股市監(jiān)管層選擇了一個(gè)平穩(wěn)時(shí)機(jī)推出股指期貨，中國(guó)股市的基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)上證綜指今年下滑3.4%.分析人士稱(chēng)，股指期貨開(kāi)始在中國(guó)金融期貨交易所交易時(shí)，很可能會(huì)上漲，為現(xiàn)行股價(jià)提供堅(jiān)實(shí)的支撐。中國(guó)金融期貨交易所是上海期貨交易所的一個(gè)附屬機(jī)構(gòu)。

　　股指期貨以滬深300指數(shù)為標(biāo)的指數(shù)，滬深300指數(shù)的成份股是在滬深兩市上市的300只大盤(pán)A股。2010年迄今，滬深300指數(shù)已下滑4.6%，周四收盤(pán)比前一交易日下跌0.3%.該指數(shù)在2009年的漲幅約為54%。

　　多年以來(lái)，分析人士常常將中國(guó)股市的巨大波動(dòng)性部分歸咎于缺乏股指期貨機(jī)制。去年上證綜指上揚(yáng)80%，前年下跌65%，而在2007年則上漲97%。

　　中國(guó)市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管層已推出主要大宗商品的期貨交易，該類(lèi)市場(chǎng)較為開(kāi)放，交易量最大的期貨品種中，銅及食糖的期貨交易最為活躍。

　　有關(guān)部門(mén)已經(jīng)對(duì)與金融產(chǎn)品、特別是股票掛鉤的期貨產(chǎn)生興趣，雖然金融期貨的交易活動(dòng)被認(rèn)為是華爾街2008年陷入崩潰的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?

　　但和華爾街以房地產(chǎn)為基礎(chǔ)的復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品不同，中國(guó)的期貨產(chǎn)品被認(rèn)為是很簡(jiǎn)單的。

　　另外，中國(guó)政府采取了謹(jǐn)慎的行動(dòng)。很多個(gè)人投資者和公募基金等其他投資者都將不能立即參與股指期貨交易。

　　目前已有大約7，000個(gè)用于交易股指期貨的投資賬戶(hù)開(kāi)立，相比之下，股市的賬戶(hù)數(shù)量多達(dá)1.21億。這也意味著股指期貨的交易不會(huì)怎么活躍。

　　上個(gè)月，中國(guó)金融期貨交易所（簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)中金所）總經(jīng)理朱玉辰表示，已開(kāi)設(shè)期貨交易賬戶(hù)的投資者中，98%都是個(gè)人投資者。

　　分析人士認(rèn)為，股指期貨清淡而偏向散戶(hù)的交投，在剛開(kāi)始的時(shí)候可能會(huì)帶來(lái)價(jià)格的大幅波動(dòng)。

　　近幾個(gè)星期，同某些個(gè)股掛鉤的產(chǎn)品獲得監(jiān)管層放行，包括保證金交易和做空交易。這些產(chǎn)品的交易活動(dòng)也受到規(guī)則的限制，自上個(gè)月開(kāi)始以來(lái)，其成交量一直很低。

　　開(kāi)始階段，股指期貨將在每個(gè)到期月份的第三個(gè)周五到期，第一批是5月、6月、9月和12月到期的合約。

　　中金所為上述四張合約設(shè)定了一個(gè)3399點(diǎn)的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)，略高于周四的收盤(pán)價(jià)。分析人士說(shuō)，基準(zhǔn)價(jià)處在滬深300指數(shù)近期波動(dòng)范圍內(nèi)，并且是監(jiān)管層選擇的幸運(yùn)數(shù)字。在廣東話(huà)中，“3”聽(tīng)起來(lái)像“升”，“9”就像是“久”。

　　上海中期期貨經(jīng)紀(jì)有限公司（Shanghai Cifco Futures Co.）的分析師經(jīng)琢成表示，中金所為四張合約設(shè)定同一個(gè)基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格，可能是想限制其間的套利交易。

　　據(jù)中金所發(fā)布的規(guī)則，合約價(jià)格每交易日波動(dòng)幅度的上下限均為10%。

　　長(zhǎng)城偉業(yè)期貨（Great Wall Futures Corp.）駐上海的分析師陳樹(shù)強(qiáng)估計(jì)，流動(dòng)性可能最好的5月份合約、6月份合約，其合理價(jià)值相比滬深300指數(shù)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格分別有15點(diǎn)和29點(diǎn)的升水。

　　China Investors：Ready For The Futures

　　Stock-market-index futures are scheduled to make their debut Friday in China，a much-awaited step to liberalize markets amid investors' hunger for new investment products.

　　Futures will for the first time give investors in China the ability to make trades based on their expectations the overall market will fall，not just rise.

　　Analysts say the inability to do that has helped fuel Chinese stock-market bubbles because bears have no choice but to sell，giving disproportionate influence to market bulls.

　　The futures will also offer a leading indicator of where investors think prices are headed.

　　The futures have been a decade in planning，in part because market regulators were reluctant to allow a product they fear could destabilize stocks. Analysts say the futures mark only a modest modernization，while limits on who can trade them and how they will trade will blunt their ability to send price signals.

　　Regulators have picked a quiet moment to introduce futures，with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 3.4% this year. Analysts say the futures are likely to rise when they begin trading on the China Financial Futures Exchange，an affiliate of the Shanghai Futures Exchange，giving current share prices a solid underpinning.

　　Index futures will be tied to the CSI-300，an index of 300 large-capitalization Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed Class A shares. So far in 2010，the CSI has lost 4.6%，ending Thursday's session down 0.3%. The index gained about 54% in 2009.

　　Over the years，analysts often blamed the great volatility of China's stock market in part on the absence of stock-index futures. The Shanghai Composite surged 80% last year，fell 65% the previous year and rose 97% in 2007.

　　Chinese authorities have embraced futures in major commodities and liberalized the market enough to make Chinese futures in copper and sugar among the most traded anywhere.

　　Authorities have warmed to futures tied to financial products，in particular to stocks，even as activity in financial futures was blamed in Wall Street's 2008 meltdown.

　　But unlike Wall Street's complex real-estate-based products，China's futures are considered simple.

　　Also，Beijing is moving cautiously. Many individuals and other participants，including mutual funds，won't be permitted to deal in stock-index futures immediately.

　　About 7 000 investor accounts have been opened to trade the index futures，compared with 121 million stock-market accounts，also suggesting trading will be limited.

　　Last month，Zhu Yucheng，general manager of the China Financial Futures Exchange，said 98% of those who had opened accounts to trade futures were individual investors.

　　Thin，retail-oriented trading in index futures could lead to dramatic fluctuations in their values initially， analysts say.

　　Regulators in recent weeks permitted trading of products tied to selected individual stocks，including margin trading and short selling. Rules also curtail activity in these products，and volume has remained small since last month's debut.

　　The initial stock-index futures will expire on the third Friday of each month，starting with contracts in May， June，September and December.

　　The exchange set a base price at 3399 for all four contracts，slightly above Thursday's close. Analysts said the base price is in the recent range of the CSI-300 Index and has been chosen as a lucky number by the regulator. In Cantonese，'three' sounds like the character for 'rise' while 'nine' sounds like the one for 'long.'

　　'The exchange probably wants to limit arbitration between the four contracts by setting the base price at the same level，' said Jing Zhuocheng，an analyst at Shanghai Cifco Futures Co.

　　The contract price will be permitted to rise or fall as much as 10% in one session，according to rules published by the exchange.

　　Chen Shuqiang，an analyst at Great Wall Futures Corp. in Shanghai，estimated the fair value of the May and June contracts，which will likely to be the most liquid instruments，at 15- and 29-point premiums to the spot level of the CSI-300，respectively.