Mark another milestone for China's ever-rising economic profile: UBS emerging-markets economist Jonathan Anderson has declared China's property industry "the single most important sector in the entire global economy."

　　中國不斷增強的經(jīng)濟影響力出現(xiàn)又一里程碑：瑞銀(UBS)新興市場經(jīng)濟學家安德森(Jonathan Anderso)說，中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已成為全球經(jīng)濟中最重要的一個行業(yè)。

　　In a research note Wednesday, Mr. Anderson, a longtime China watcher, says that "real-estate and housing construction pervade the entire [China] growth model. They are the most important determinant of commodity demand, a very big marginal driver of China's external surpluses, and indeed a crucial key to real understanding of household balance sheets, saving and investment behavior and the debate around Chinese rebalancing." In other words, he says, "from a macroeconomic perspective if you don't understand Chinese property, you probably don't understand China."

　　長期觀察中國經(jīng)濟的安德森周三在一份研究報告中說：房地產(chǎn)和住房建設(shè)已經(jīng)成為中國增長模式的顯著特征，它們是決定大宗商品需求的最重要因素；也是造成中國外部盈余的重大推手；還是真正理解中國家庭的資產(chǎn)負債表、儲蓄和投資行為以及有關(guān)中國再平衡討論的關(guān)鍵一環(huán)。換句話說，從宏觀經(jīng)濟學的視角看，如果你不理解中國的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，你就不理解中國。

　　Many global investors won't find the declaration all that surprising, having seen shares in many companies buffeted over the past year by Beijing's efforts to wrestle with soaring house prices while trying to avoid undercutting the construction industry. But it is remarkable sign of the times nevertheless. As Mr. Anderson notes, "until very recently' the proper response to the question of which sector is most important 'would almost certainly have been U.S. financials and/or U.S. housing."

　　Reuters北京市中心的一處住宅區(qū)附近的建筑工地，一名男子邊走邊打電話。許多全球投資者并不會覺得上述言論有多么令人吃驚，他們在過去一年中看到，由于中國政府在同飛漲的房價作斗爭的同時還要避免過分打擊建筑業(yè)，許多公司的股價因此遭受打擊。但無論如何，中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)仍是這個時代的顯著標志。正如安德森寫所指出的，直到不久前，對于“哪個行業(yè)對世界經(jīng)濟是最重要的”這個問題，最恰當?shù)拇鸢高€幾乎肯定是美國金融業(yè)或美國住房市場。

　　The numbers tell much of the story. China is the world's largest consumer of steel, and Mr. Anderson notes that real estate directly accounts for 40% of Chinese steel usage. Add home appliances and automobiles which he notes tend to directly follow new housing purchases in China--the share is more than 50%. Similar logic applies to other products like cement, iron ore, coal, and construction equipment.

　　數(shù)字最能說明問題。中國是世界上最大的鋼鐵消費國，安德森說房地產(chǎn)業(yè)直接占了中國鋼鐵消費量的40%，而家電制造、汽車制造和房地產(chǎn)這三個行業(yè)則直接占據(jù)了中國鋼鐵消費量的50%以上。據(jù)安德森觀察，中國人購買新房之后，通常會購置家電和汽車。類似的邏輯同樣適用于水泥、鐵礦石、煤炭和建筑設(shè)備等產(chǎn)品。

　　Property construction 75% of which in China is housing--accounted for more than 13% of China's gross domestic product last year, UBS estimates more than double the average of 6% in the 1990s. Mr. Anderson says that explains why investment overall accounts for such a large share of China's economy an estimated 47% to 48% of GDP last year, which is an absolute record for any economy of significant size in the post-war era, and almost single-handedly explains China's explosive real growth over the same period.

　　據(jù)瑞銀估計，房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)去年對中國GDP的貢獻率超過13%（其中75%是住房建設(shè)），是6%這一上世紀90年代平均水平的兩倍多。安德森說，這可以解釋為什么投資在中國經(jīng)濟中占據(jù)了如此大的比重。據(jù)估計去年這一比重約為47%至48%。安德森說，對于戰(zhàn)后任何一個大型經(jīng)濟體來說，這都絕對是最高記錄，僅此一點就幾乎足以解釋中國為何能實現(xiàn)爆炸性的實際增長。

　　So is China's property sector a bubble? And how long can the boom continue? Mr. Anderson temporarily punts on those all-important questions, saying colleague Wang Tao, UBS's China economist, will weigh in next week.

　　那么，中國的房地產(chǎn)市場會是一個泡沫嗎？繁榮又能持續(xù)多久呢？對于這些十分重要的問題，安德森暫時避而不談，只說他的同事汪濤（瑞銀中國經(jīng)濟學家）會在下周論及這些問題。