How much further can the dollar plummet?

　　美元還可以跌多少？

　　Even as the tired mantra of a U.S. strong-dollar policy was repeated by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this week and Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, the greenback continued plumbing new depths. The ICE dollar index is at its lowest since 2008. This year the dollar has hit record lows against the yen, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Singapore dollar, J.P. Morgan notes. All the forces look negative. But investors should weigh the risks carefully.

　　美國財政部長蓋特納(Timothy Geithner)在本周、美聯(lián)儲主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)在周三又念叨著美國奉行強勢美元政策這個讓人生厭的咒語，同一時間，美元卻在繼續(xù)跌向新的深度。洲際交易所(ICE)美元指數(shù)處于2008年以來的最低水平。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)指出，今年美元已經(jīng)對日圓、澳大利亞元、瑞士法郎和新加坡元創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄新低。所有因素看起來都不利于美元。但投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)仔細權(quán)衡風(fēng)險。

　　Most obviously, the dollar is suffering from ultraloose U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates at zero and buy bonds. While the money printing is finally scheduled to end in June, the Fed still plans an extended period of low rates. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere are firmly in rate-raising mode, including the European Central Bank, which seems determined to burnish its inflation-busting credentials. A big yield differential between the U.S. and Europe could open up.

　　最明顯的利空因素是美國的超寬松貨幣政策。美聯(lián)儲仍在將利率維持于近零水平，仍在購買國債。印鈔票之舉終于確定要在6月份結(jié)束，但美聯(lián)儲仍然打算在較長時期維持低利率。與此同時，其他央行已經(jīng)明確地進入加息狀態(tài)，比如歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)，它似乎下定了決心要提高自己的抗通脹成績。美國和歐洲之間有可能形成一個巨大的息差。

　　Another negative is international capital flows. U.S. investors have been stepping up purchases of foreign stocks, and foreign central-bank reserve managers are diversifying holdings. Central banks' purchases of foreign currency added $248 billion to reserves in the first quarter. But official flows into U.S. dollar assets are far limper compared with that, according to Nomura. China, in particular, has signaled support for the euro and euro-zone bonds.

　　另外一個不利因素是國際資本流動。美國投資者已經(jīng)在加大購買海外股票的力度，其他央行的外匯儲備管理機構(gòu)也在分散資產(chǎn)。多家央行今年一季度所購?fù)鈳攀顾鼈兊膬湓黾恿?480億美元，但野村證券(Nomura)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，官方購買美元資產(chǎn)的資金流比這個數(shù)字稀少得多。特別是中國，它已經(jīng)發(fā)出了支持歐元和歐元區(qū)債券的信號。

　　There also is the risk of further dollar weakness if it starts to reflect fiscal concerns, as the euro did last year. Washington has shown little evidence of its ability to agree to a coherent plan to tame the runaway deficit.

　　而如果美元像歐元去年一樣，開始反映投資者對財政狀況的擔(dān)憂，這也有可能使美元進一步走軟。華盛頓基本沒有什么證據(jù)表明它能夠就某個控制赤字的嚴(yán)密方案達成一致。

　　The danger is chasing the dollar down this apparent one-way street. The biggest threat to the conventional wisdom is the potential for a dip in risk appetite. That might be sparked by the end of quantitative easing, or a more serious resurgence in the euro-zone debt crisis, particularly if it threatened Spain. A risk-off trade likely would cause a dollar spike on safe-haven flows and investors closing short-dollar bets.

　　如果以為美元是在單邊下跌，于是順勢做空，那就危險了。這種普遍看法面臨的最大威脅，在于市場風(fēng)險偏好可能突然減弱。量化寬松的結(jié)束可能導(dǎo)致這種減弱，而如果歐洲債務(wù)危機死灰復(fù)燃而且更加嚴(yán)重，特別是如果危機威脅到西班牙，風(fēng)險偏好同樣有可能突減。若投資者進行避險操作，美元就有可能因為避險資金流入、投資者結(jié)清美元空頭而大幅上漲。

　　But even that likely would be temporary. Even though Mr. Bernanke made clear he will act if inflation risks rise, soaring asset prices and the impact of higher commodities prices into headline inflation are likely to continue being ignored. While the bar for further money printing is getting higher, the message from Wednesday's meeting was the Fed remains committed in its experiment of superaggressive monetary policy to reduce unemployment and pull the U.S. out of its economic mess.

　　但即使這種情況也有可能只是暫時的。盡管貝南克明確表示他會在通脹風(fēng)險增加的情況下采取行動，但資產(chǎn)價格的飆升、大宗商品價格上漲對總體通貨膨脹的影響有可能繼續(xù)被忽略。雖然繼續(xù)印刷鈔票面臨的限制日趨嚴(yán)格，但周三議息會議傳出的信息卻是美聯(lián)儲仍然要堅持試驗它的超激進貨幣政策，以減少失業(yè)，讓美國走出經(jīng)濟泥潭。

　　The surge in gold and silver, with the SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Silver Trust ETFs up 1.9% and 6.8%, respectively, on the day, underlined the market view. Investors can expect plenty more dollar-sapping monetary policy to come.

　　周三黃金和白銀價格大幅上漲，交易所買賣基金SPDR Gold Trust和iShares Silver Trust分別上漲了1.9%和6.8%。這正是市場上述觀點的反映。投資者可以期待大量不利于美元的新貨幣政策出臺。