AFM知識(shí)點(diǎn)匯總—APV原理&優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)、海外投資項(xiàng)目的 government & business factors

原理：將投資決策和融資決策分開來(lái)考慮。允許公司評(píng)估項(xiàng)目損益，根據(jù)新的融 資方式。這樣，在估算時(shí)，先僅僅考慮商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（用 Kei 折現(xiàn)）；其次才考慮債 務(wù)融資和補(bǔ)貼貸款帶來(lái)的好處(節(jié)稅，省息）。這樣公司可以評(píng)估投資活動(dòng)的價(jià)值， 以及因融資方式帶來(lái)的好處。

APV method separates the investment decision from the financing decision. This will allow company to evaluate the gain or loss associated with the costs and benefits of the new finance.

The value of the project is initially assessed considering only the business risk involved in undertaking the project. The discount rate used is based on the asset beta which measures only the business risk of that company.

The impact of debt financing and the subsidy benefit are then considered. In this way, the company can assess the value created its investment activity and then the additional value created from the manner in which the project is financed.

優(yōu)點(diǎn)：

1.不同資金不同折算率，商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)用 Kei,金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)用 Kd。It allows each different type of cash flow to be discounted at a rate specific to risk of that cash flow.

2.當(dāng)融資情況較復(fù)雜時(shí)，此法適用 It also allows the effects of more complex financing situations to be considered

缺點(diǎn)： 

Kei 是用 CAPM 計(jì)算得來(lái)，所以有 CAPM 的理論缺陷。Discounted rate used in base on CAPM, which has number of theoretical weakness.具體是那些不現(xiàn)實(shí)的假設(shè)： Zero insolvency costs 零破產(chǎn)成本；投資市場(chǎng)有效；投資人有多樣化的投資組合； 完美資本市場(chǎng)；且很難確定 excess return, risk free rate & B 值。

結(jié)合案例：

1. 政權(quán)更迭，導(dǎo)致目前的稅率變化，補(bǔ)貼貸款政策變化；

2. 需要計(jì)算如果稅率或借款利率變化多少，會(huì)讓項(xiàng)目的 APV 轉(zhuǎn)成負(fù)值。

3. 新政府是否有 remittance 限制？這樣折現(xiàn)率不同，導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目 APV 變化。

4. 考慮項(xiàng)目是否存在 real option，來(lái)給項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)額外的價(jià)值。

5. 拓展計(jì)劃是否符合公司 Strategy?

6. 管理層是否有海外拓展經(jīng)驗(yàn)？過去的項(xiàng)目的成功率多少？

7. 結(jié)合測(cè)算數(shù)據(jù)看，是否延期開展會(huì)有更好的價(jià)值？

8. 建廠是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致當(dāng)?shù)厝嗣襁w徙，是否存在環(huán)境和責(zé)任方面的顧慮?